Kamala Harris likely to follow the path Biden has laid out in Canada-US relations

WASHINGTON, DC — Observers expect Kamala Harris to follow President Joe Biden’s road map for the U.S.-Canada relationship in her bid to secure the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.

“On the key issues that matter to Canada-U.S. relations, her views are very much aligned with the president’s,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

Biden endorsed Harris, his right-hand man, and dropped out of the 2024 presidential race on Sunday.

Biden bowed to weeks of pressure after appearing flustered and weak during a debate with Republican rival Donald Trump last month, followed by missteps on the world stage at the NATO leaders’ conference.

The vice president moved quickly to drum up support for her bid to become the party’s presidential nominee. Harris has received the blessing of key Democratic figures, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has considerable influence and clout within the party.

“The most important thing is the remarkable degree to which the party has coalesced around Harris,” said Marc Trussler of the University of Pennsylvania.

Trussler, director of data science for the university’s Program in Opinion Research and Election Studies, said the biggest risk of Biden’s departure was whether Democrats could present a united front after he leaves office.

Harris is hoping to win delegate support ahead of the party’s national conference next month, where the choice of a presidential candidate will be confirmed.

Trussler, who is Canadian, said Biden’s departure and the party’s response marked a pivotal moment for Democrats to decide what the election would be about: Biden’s mental acuity or Trump’s policies.

“It seems like this election is now going to be all about Donald Trump,” Trussler said.

Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the US, said the relationship between the two countries had flourished under Biden, whom she described as “an experienced, thoughtful and dedicated leader”.

Yet Canadians have spent months reaching out to both Democrats and Republicans to press their case for cooperation ahead of the November election. At the top of the agenda is the looming revision of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.

Harris was one of 10 U.S. senators who voted against the trade deal, saying it did not do enough to protect American workers and the environment.

During his presidency, Trump pushed to renegotiate the old North American Free Trade Agreement, and his administration imposed billions of dollars in tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports. He has threatened to impose more tariffs and cut aid to Ukraine to fend off a Russian invasion if he wins a second term.

“Under our leadership, the United States will be respected again,” Trump said during a lengthy speech at the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee last week.

Softwood lumber and Canada’s digital services tax are major points of contention for both Republicans and Democrats.

Biden’s tenure has brought some stability, but not much change. He has largely kept Trump’s tariffs in place, despite promises to roll them back. There has also been tension over the Biden administration’s Buy American procurement rules.

Garry Keller, vice chairman of lobbying firm Strategy Corp., expects these protectionist policies to continue under Harris’s banner.

Democrats will have to work hard to win the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, said Keller, who was chief of staff to former Conservative Party foreign secretary John Baird.

In 2016, they switched to the Republican Party when Trump won, and in 2020 they became Democratic and helped Biden into the White House.

Canadians should focus less on how this particular election turns out, said Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Instead, Roberts said, Canadian governments should develop long-term strategies to deal with an increasingly tumultuous American political system.

“The long-term reality for Canada, regardless of who wins the election, is that the United States is going through a period of political and social instability that will last for years,” said Roberts, a Canadian.

The powers of the president and the role of the federal government have expanded since World War II, and it is now a “winner-takes-all competition,” Roberts said. It has created an increasingly volatile electoral climate and made America an increasingly difficult neighbor.

The challenge for Canadians, Roberts said, is “figuring out how to deal with that instability.”

That means “intensified, distributed diplomacy” that doesn’t just focus on Washington, he said. It must also include conversations with state governments, critical industries and American people themselves.

Roberts suspects that leaders in Ottawa and across Canada are already planning for worst-case scenarios for the relationship with Canada’s largest partner. He said they are likely asking “what can you do to reduce dependence on the United States.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 22, 2024.

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press