Do the changes in the presidential election affect the race for the Ohio Senate?

CLEVELAND — If a presidential election is like a game of chess, with every move methodically planned, then the events of the past two weeks have been like someone bumping the board and sending the pieces flying.

The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, followed by President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race and the rapid merger of Democratic delegates around Vice President Kamala Harris are all monumental events.

Will Harris’ rise to first place even change a state like Ohio, where Trump twice won by eight points?

“I think she has the potential to really move the needle, depending on the enthusiasm gap that’s been created by Biden’s candidacy and the concerns about his age and his ability,” said News 5 political analyst Dr. Tom Sutton of Baldwin Wallace University. “I don’t see this as a state that’s going to go for Harris any more than it would go for Biden with Trump on the ballot. But there is a possibility that we’ll see an uptick in voter turnout among constituencies that might otherwise have stayed home, younger voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, who see in her someone they really want to vote for rather than having to choose between two candidates they didn’t really like, whether it was Trump or Biden.”

Where that could have an impact is at the lower ballot boxes, such as the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. Democrats running statewide will rely heavily on voters around the Democratic strongholds of Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton and Youngstown to offset the strong Republican advantage in the rest of the state.

“I think it certainly contributes to the enthusiasm in those districts among those demographic groups, younger voters, voters who live in urban areas, women on the abortion issue, where Kamala Harris has been a leading voice on abortion rights,” Sutton said.

“I think it has to do with the extent to which Kamala Harris will campaign in Ohio. Not so much to win the state for her own campaign, but primarily to support Sherrod Brown,” he said.

But he also points out that enthusiasm among the state’s Republican base is already high, and that it is only strengthened by the choice of Senator JD Vance as Donald Trump’s running mate.

“I think the net effect, regardless of the outcome, will be that we will see much higher voter turnout in Ohio than we otherwise would have seen with Biden on the ballot,” Sutton said.