The Karakhan Manifesto and China’s Salami-Slicing of Russia! – Defense News

By Lt Gen PR Shankar (R)

On August 28, 2023, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released a new “standard map.” The map included Taiwan and parts of the maritime zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It added the tenth dash to the existing nine-dashed line claim in the South China Sea. It also depicted Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as part of its territory. Most importantly, the map included the entire Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island, half of which is Russian territory.

It was puzzling. Why would China take an island at the confluence of the Ussuri and Amur rivers as its own, when the Sino-Russian border has already been demarcated? In 2005, it was bilaterally decided that Bolshoy Ussurisky Island would be split in two and the border would run in the middle. Why is China opening a dispute, especially now that Putin and Xi Jinping had declared in a joint statement in February 2022 that “the friendship between the two states knows ‘no borders’, there are no ‘forbidden’ areas for cooperation”?

The answer came to light in a headline in the South China Morning Post on May 17, 2024. It said that “China must act quickly to regain Russia’s ‘lost territories’.” It referred to the Karakhan Manifesto and Russia’s promise to abolish the tsarist “unequal treaties.” It was clarified that the Karakhan Manifesto renounced all “conquests” that “deprived China of Manchuria and other territories.” It further stated that the Karakhan Manifesto “contained proposals promising to return to the Chinese people everything that the tsarist government had taken from them.” It was stated that the Soviet government specifically mentioned words to the effect that “the return to the Chinese people of what was taken from them requires, first of all, ending the plunder of Manchuria and Siberia.”

The article argues that now that Putin is bogged down in the war in Ukraine, it might be the best time to tell Russia to recognize China’s rights to its “lost territories.” It goes on to argue that Russia is now dependent on China. It has a GDP six times larger and a population ten times larger than Russia’s. This gives China strong financial leverage over Russia. It should start negotiating to get its land back “while the iron is hot.” ​​“China should also threaten to stop buying Russian gas, timber, minerals and petroleum, and even halt sales of much-needed dual-purpose technology to Russia. Without China’s help, the Russian war machine in Ukraine would grind to a halt within months. The argument is pushed further – ‘if Russia is justified in taking part of Ukraine, then China is equally justified in retaking its old territories in the Russian Far East’! Very, very intriguing indeed!

What is the Karakhan Manifesto?

It is a manifesto issued on July 25, 1919 by Lev Karakhan, of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the USSR. It proclaims Russia’s unilateral renunciation of unequal treaties, territorial concessions, extraterritoriality and its share of the Boxer Indemnity, as well as the return of the Chinese Eastern RailwayIn short, it offered to renounce all Soviet claims to the special rights and privileges that the Russian Tsarist government had won in China. However, the original proposal was later modified and the treaty was finally signed on May 31, 1924 after extensive negotiations. Under the signed treaty, the Russians gave up only their rights to extraterritoriality and the right of foreigners to be tried by their own consuls and to govern themselves in China. It also outlined the joint Sino-Soviet administration of the Chinese Eastern Railway, which then ran through Manchuria from Siberia to Vladivostok. In 1924, the Russians recaptured the railway and agreed to its eventual purchase by China.

Interestingly, it turns out that there are two versions of the Karakhan Manifesto! In the second version, there are no proposals that promise to return to the Chinese people everything that was taken from them by the Tsarist government. The more interesting point is that the Chinese accepted both treaties and used them at different times for different purposes! This was because they represented the first unilateral expression of friendship and offer of equality from a European country when Sun Yat Sen and China were seeking some kind of international recognition. The important point, however, is that the Karakhan Manifestos nowhere mentioned that any land would be returned. In any case, this issue was never raised as late as 2005, when China and Russia demarcated their borders along the Amur and Ussuri rivers on a mutually acceptable basis.

So, what were the unequal treaties about? The unequal treaties came about as a result of the expansion of Tsarist Russia into regions along the Far Eastern border of China when the Qing dynasty was weak and in decline. The first was the Treaty of Nerchinsk of August 1689, which demarcated part of the border between China and Russia in the Far East (see map). The next was the Treaty of Khiakhta (Burinsk) of 1727, which roughly demarcated the present-day border between Mongolia and Russia. The third treaty was the Treaty of Aigun of 1858, which re-drew the border between China and Russia along the Amur and Ussuri rivers. The final treaty was the Treaty of Peking of 1860, which granted the territory between the Amur and Ussuri rivers and the Sea of ​​Japan to Tsarist Russia. These territories roughly correspond to modern-day Amur Oblast and Primorsky Krai in Russia, respectively. These areas are often referred to as Outer Manchuria, part of the larger region of Manchuria. The Chinese now want them back!

So the question is how do you get it back from your Russian friend with whom you have a friendship treaty with no off limits? The answer is to resort to the tried and true salami slicing strategy! The tried and true Chinese salami slicing method involves a three step process. The first step is to create a legal dispute where there is none. However, it will be so small that everyone will consider it insignificant. Then over time, the dispute is amplified by fiction and false claims based on made up or altered history/facts. China makes it sound like a real grievance where the other party has deprived them of their rights. China then puts the other party on the defensive, as it did with India in the case of Arunachal Pradesh. The second step has always been to officially claim the territory when sufficient pressure has been exerted. Then the third step has been to wait for an opportune moment when China can unilaterally change the status by force or trickery when everyone’s attention is focused on a crisis, or the weakened target state gives it away in helpless gratitude. We saw this happen with the way islands in the South China Sea were seized.

Applying this strategy to the current situation, it is clear that the Chinese standard map issued on August 23rd was the first step in the salami-slicing strategy. It is small enough to be considered a minor irritation that is overlooked. Now it is being amplified and expanded by misrepresenting history and altering facts. These are being brought out to show that Russia is guilty of breaching its treaty obligations and therefore must return the land to its rightful owner. Again, the strategy is covert. The SCMP article is in fact based on a letter to the editor based on an academic study by a foreigner! This is being positioned as a popular issue expressed through public opinion. In due course, more such letters will come. Then, under public pressure, the Chinese government will be forced to take up the issue with Russia for the return of the disputed territory. By then, the area claimed will also have been expanded based on another forged document. In due course, the second and third steps will unfold. By the time these steps are completed, China’s grip on Russia – economically, politically, diplomatically and militarily – will be ironclad and the latter will be used to cede territory!

Why is China doing this? A glance at the map will tell you that annexing the Trans-Amur and Ussuri rivers will give China access to the Sea of ​​Japan. That is a huge strategic step in the dreams of superpower China and its Sino-centric world order. If Valdivostok falls into its lap, that would be a big bonus. One does not know what the Russians think of this game plan. It would be interesting to see their reaction. The ‘borderless friendship’ with Russia is now tied to China’s territorial ambitions, backed by the supposedly legal Karakhan Manifesto! Russia would do well to start looking for Chinese access to ‘prohibited areas’ in violation of all their agreements. We in India are well versed in this salami-slicing approach. All we can do is warn our Russian friends that if you are locked up in Ukraine, the Chinese termite is eating your back door.

The author is a former Director General of Artillery, Indian Army and is currently a professor in the Department of Aeronautics, IIT Madras.

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