AP Decision Notes: What to Expect from Tennessee’s Primary Elections

WASHINGTON (AP) — Candidates for federal and state legislative offices competed Thursday in Tennessee for their parties’ nominations. Among the notable current or aspiring lawmakers on the ballot are a member of the conservative U.S. House Freedom Caucus who has faced a strong primary challenge and a Democratic state representative who was nearly ousted after a protest in the chamber over gun control.

In the 5th Congressional District, Rep. Andy Ogles is seeking a second term. Since his election in 2022, Ogles has been an outspoken critic of the Biden administration and last year filed articles of impeachment for President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. He filed new articles of impeachment for Harris after she became the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination following Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race.

In his early days in Congress, he was part of a group of Republicans who prolonged the race for House Speaker by voting against Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California 11 times before finally endorsing him. He later voted against the effort to expel McCarthy from Congress.

Ogles has faced several controversies since he first sought the seat two years ago. His history of late property tax payments became an issue in that campaign, but he ultimately won a crowded nine-way primary and won the general election in the redrawn Nashville-area district. He was accused by a local news station of embellishing his resume and apologized for misrepresenting his academic credentials. He was also the subject of an ethics complaint about his personal and campaign finances.

His Republican primary opponent is Courtney Johnston, a Nashville metro area councilwoman. Johnston is campaigning on similar themes to Ogles, including securing the border and reining in big government, but has described the incumbent president as a “do-nothing grandstander” who is “enmeshed in scandal.”

Johnston has surpassed Ogles in campaign contributions, though Ogles had slightly more in the bank as of mid-July. Johnston’s bid is backed by prominent Tennessee Republicans, including former U.S. Sens. Bill Frist and Bob Corker and former Gov. Bill Haslam, while national party heavyweights such as former President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson are backing Ogles. Bill Hagerty, the state’s junior U.S. senator, is also backing Ogles.

The winner will face Democrat Maryam Abolfazli in the Nashville district.

Marsha Blackburn, the state’s longest-serving senator, is also seeking a second term and is the favorite in the Republican primary over Tres Wittum, a former Senate policy analyst who finished last in the 2022 primary for the 5th Congressional District against Ogles.

Among the candidates running in the Democratic primary is State Rep. Gloria Johnson, who made national headlines in 2023 when the Republican-controlled statehouse tried to bar her and two colleagues from running for office over their roles in a gun control protest on the House floor following a school shooting in Nashville. Her colleagues, Reps. Justin Jones and Justin Pearson, were both barred, while Johnson was spared by a one-vote margin. Johnson is running simultaneously for Blackburn’s U.S. Senate seat and her own statehouse seat. Republicans considered changing state law to ban dual elections, but the proposed legislation stalled.

Also participating is Memphis activist Marquita Bradshaw, who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and lost by a wide margin to Haggerty, Lola Denise Brown and Civil Miller-Watkins.

In the state legislature, about half of the 33 Senate seats and all 99 House seats are up for election this year. Republicans enjoy supermajorities in both chambers.

Here’s what to expect on Thursday:

Primary day

Tennessee’s primary election is Thursday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. ET. The state is in both the Eastern and Central time zones, but all counties time their voting to close at the same time.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will announce the voting results and declare the winners of the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and state legislatures.

Who can vote?

Tennessee does not register voters by party, which in other states typically means that any registered voter can choose to vote in any party’s primary. However, a 2023 law requires local election officials to post signs at polling places saying that it is illegal to vote in a party’s primary without being a “bona fide” member or “affiliated with” that party, citing a 1972 state law.

Decision notes

The top counties for statewide elections are Shelby, Davidson and Knox, home to the population centers of Memphis, Nashville and Knoxville, respectively. In recent statewide elections, candidates from both major political parties have won their primaries by large margins in one of the three counties and narrowly lost the other two, while also winning most of the state’s rural areas. Governor Bill Lee won his Republican primary in 2018 by a landslide in Davidson, while his opponents split Shelby and Knox. Haggerty won his 2020 primary by a large margin in Shelby and lost Knox, Davidson and Hamilton, home to Chattanooga. Bradshaw won her Democratic primary that year by a landslide in Shelby and narrowly losing in Davidson and Knox.

Davidson County and metro Nashville also play a significant role in the 5th Congressional District, making up nearly half of the district’s population, while Williamson and Wilson County make up about 19% and 15% of the population, respectively.

Republicans redrew the state’s congressional districts in their favor after the last census, splitting the heavily Democratic Nashville area into three seats and forcing then-Nashville Democratic Congressman Jim Cooper into retirement. Voters in the current 5th District gave Trump about 55% of the vote in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it has been determined that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race has been declared, the AP will continue to report on all newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that no winner has yet been declared and explain why.

In Tennessee, recounts are held only as part of a legal challenge in the courts. There are no automatic recounts, and losing candidates cannot request a recount. The AP can declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it determines that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What does turnout and early voting look like?

As of December 2023, there were nearly 4.6 million registered voters in Tennessee.

In the 2022 primary, turnout was 6% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 11% in the Republican primary. About 54% of voters in that election cast their ballots before primary day.

As of Thursday, a total of 274,318 votes had been cast in the primaries, about 32% in the Democratic primaries and 66% in the Republican primaries.

How long does it usually take to count the votes?

In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after the polls closed. The election night count ended at 3:45 a.m. ET with about 99.7% of the total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Thursday, there are 96 days left until the November general election.

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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

Robert Yoon, Associated Press